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From: Rhino <no_offline_contact@example.com>
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Subject: Re: [OT] Major drama in Ottawa today
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 17:03:15 -0500
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On 2024-12-16 2:50 PM, shawn wrote:
> On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino
> <no_offline_contact@example.com> wrote:
> 
>> The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
>> resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
>> Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
>> the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
>> eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
>> prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
>> because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)
>>
>> Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
>> Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
>> that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
>> she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
>> member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
>> leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.
> 
> 
> Which was given as a potential reason for why she resigned as it
> separates her from Trudeau. Which may make it easier for her when/if
> she runs for the leadership role as she won't be so easily painted
> with any of Trudeau's failures.
> 
She supported everything he did from the moment she got elected. I don't 
think disagreeing with him at this late date is going to do a lot to 
distance her from Trudeau. She is still very closely associated with 
Trudeau and his policies and I would expect voters to keep that in mind 
if she wins the leadership.

>> This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
>> effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
>> actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
>> country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
>> tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
>> different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
>> Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.
> 
> I get that may be the desire but you would think people would be smart
> enough to realize that Freeland isn't putting her own plans in place.
> The role is to implement what Trudeau wants which means the deficit is
> his fault and yes, she would share in that failure to control the
> deficit.
>

It turns out that someone else gave the Fall Economic Statement - I'm 
not clear who yet - and a new Finance Minister, another Trudeau loyalist 
named Dominic Leblanc, has been sworn in.

It's not clear yet who the media have chosen to blame for the bad 
economic news: they're too busy reacting to Freeland's resignation from 
cabinet and speculating on what Trudeau will do about his own future. 
The pundits are saying Trudeau can't survive this and will have to 
resign in the next day or two, which means he'd probably prorogue 
(suspend) Parliament for a few months so that the Liberals can choose a 
new leader. That would also prevent the opposition parties from having a 
no-confidence vote to force an election. But parliament is in session as 
I write this and things may go a different way.

In any case, parliament is set to break for Christmas on Wednesday which 
inevitably means weeks where they aren't in session - but probably not 
long enough for the Liberals to have a leisurely leadership race.

>> Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
>> are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
>> is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
>> vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
>>
>> That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
>> skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
>> (suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
>> space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
>> understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
>> AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
>> leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
>> new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.


-- 
Rhino