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From: Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@gXXmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: 8 & 9 year old girls riding bicycles
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2024 11:21:18 -0500
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On 12/25/2024 8:12 PM, John B. wrote:
> On Wed, 25 Dec 2024 19:13:18 -0500, Frank Krygowski
> <frkrygow@gXXmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On 12/25/2024 3:25 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>>> On 12/25/2024 1:26 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>>>> On 12/25/2024 4:53 AM, John B. wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I've mentioned numerous times that my family had guns in the house for
>>>>> 3 generations with no one being shoot. But reality apparently has no
>>>>> bearing on what some people want to be true.
>>>>
>>>> I think there's no way to logically converse with people who think one
>>>> or two anecdotes are more valid than reams of carefully gathered data.
>>>>
>>>> So much for science!
>>>>
>>>
>>> For actual numbers:
>>>
>>> 400 million civilian firearms with just under 20,000 firearm homicides
>>> per year, one per 20,000 firearms.
>>>
>>> https://usafacts.org/data-projects/firearms-suicides
>>>
>>> About 100 million bicycles
>>>
>>> https://electronwheel.com/bike-facts-and-statistics/
>>>
>>> for about 1300 deaths, one per 73,528 bicycles
>>>
>>>
>>> https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-topics/bicycle-
>>> deaths/
>>>
>>> Which is a lower rate, only 27% of the likelihood of death per bicycle
>>> as per firearm.
>>>
>>> 283,400,986 autos and light trucks in USA
>>>
>>> https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/how-many-cars-are-in-the-us.html
>>>
>>> with 44,534 auto/ light truck deaths, one per 6363 vehicles.
>>>
>>> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/accidental-injury.htm
>>>
>>> That's over 3x (3.14) more dangerous per vehicle as per firearm.
>>>
>>>
>>> For an anecdote, all four of my firearms have been oiled and cased,
>>> undisturbed in any way, for well over a month. Not one of them has
>>> jumped up and wrought mayhem. Not even a little bit.
>>
>> Nice try, Andrew, but that's a thorough and elaborate attempt at
>> distraction.
>>
>> The issue specifically being discussed is whether there's more risk of
>> being shot - or killed by gunshot - when there is a gun in the house,
>> versus no gun in the house.
>>
>> The data is clear, and not even close. Even accounting for differences
>> in neighborhood climate (or comparing houses that are both in the same
>> sorts of neighborhoods) if you have a gun in the house, it's more likely
>> that people will be harmed or killed by that gun.
>>
>> Of course there are houses with guns that have not had that experience.
>> Just as there are people who smoked and did not die of lung cancer.
>> Nobody is claiming 100% of guns cause death, nor that 100% of gun owner
>> households have gun deaths. The evidence is that the risk is over twice
>> as high in those households, not 100%.
>>
>> Citing bicycle crashes, car crashes, or any other source of harm are
>> attempts at distraction.
> 
> 
> Ah yes but ignoring reality is equally as fault.Example, according to
> FBI data Blacks (forgive the description as I'm not up to date on the
> current politically correct term) who comprise something like 13% of
> the U.S. population commit more then 50% of homicides in the U.S.
> Do you suppose that a study made in a site with a large percent of
> Black residents might, just possible, be a tiny bit different then a
> site with fewer, or even no, Blacks?

Again (and again!) at least one of the papers I cited compared 
households that were as similar as possible, _except_ for guns.

And anyway, what do you think we should do about blacks? Pretend they're 
a different species, so they don't count?



-- 
- Frank Krygowski