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From: AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: 8 & 9 year old girls riding bicycles
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2024 08:41:36 -0600
Organization: Yellow Jersey, Ltd.
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On 12/27/2024 8:55 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> On 12/27/2024 2:25 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 12/27/2024 12:35 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>>>
>>>> And I agree with you that defense is utterly random due 
>>>> to the asymmetric aspect of planning vs surprise, armed 
>>>> or not.
>>> Thank you. And I wonder how many of the gun hobbyists 
>>> here keep their loaded gun at the ready, to be grabbed 
>>> within a minute, when at home?
>>
>> I have no idea of actual numbers, and data is scarce, for 
>> the same reason that political polling is much less 
>> accurate now.
>>
>> All defensive use of firearms (not only against domestic 
>> intruder but also cabbies, store clerks, runners & 
>> cyclists, etc) runs to very large numbers in total.
>>
>> https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU00/20211027/114190/ 
>> HMKP-117- JU00-20211027-SD007.pdf
> 
> Ah yes. But OTOH https://www.americanprogress.org/article/ 
> debunking-the-guns-make-us-safer-myth/
> 
> "Using Kleck and Gertz’s own accounting, David Hemenway, 
> director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, 
> showed just two years later that their DGU estimates were 
> impossible.21 While the 1995 survey estimated that guns were 
> used for self-defense during burglaries approximately 
> 845,000 times that year, Hemenway estimated that fewer than 
> 550,000 possible burglaries occurred in homes with a gun 
> owner present—suggesting that for the Kleck and Gertz 
> figures to be accurate, burglary victims would have needed 
> to use their gun defensively in more than 100 percent of 
> cases, which is, of course, impossible.22 "  Etc.
> 
> A major tactic of gun fans is making people very, very 
> afraid - as in "Someone could break through your front door 
> as you're reading this!" Or "Someone could try to kill you 
> as you ride your bike to work!"
> 
> And yet, it seems such incidents are so rare they're found 
> by only one guy I know who digs for them each day on the 
> internet!  :-)
> 
>> Justice Department says 100,000 defensive use of firearms 
>> incidents which is well over the total number of firearm 
>> homicides. Independent researchers show between 760,000 
>> and 3.6 million defensive events per year.
>>
>> Why did you not know this? 
> 
> We've discussed this at length, haven't we? "Nine times as 
> many people report being victimized by a person with a gun 
> than being protected by a gun."
> 
> Our tricycle rider just said that seconds count. When you're 
> at home, is your gun on your person at all times, just in 
> case of a home invasion? Is his? I'm betting not. I'm 
> betting if you did suffer a home invasion, like John did, 
> your gun would be useless. Like John's was.
> 
> 

And yet the Justice Department, which clearly undercounts, 
says 100,000 defensive incidents per year. All other sources 
are higher, most much higher.

Which says to me that some large number of USAians see a 
benefit, and avail themselves of it, and are alive to tell 
the tale.

I agree with you that such situations are chaotic and vary 
greatly in scenario, detail, abilities/skills and timing 
such that outcomes are random and unpredictable. In short, 
being armed is not a 100% certainty of success in defense. 
But enough of my fellow citizens believe it's helpful and 
for at least 100,000 of them, worthwhile.


-- 
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971