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From: Popping Mad <rainbow@colition.gov>
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Subject: Gaza and the cease fire
Date: Sat, 18 Jan 2025 09:02:24 -0500
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It was Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath, when Steve Witkoff, President-elect
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, sat down with Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to deliver a stark message from his boss: It was time
for a cease-fire deal in Gaza.

Witkoff, a real-estate developer from New York, told the prime minister
choices had to be made and Israel’s negotiators needed the authority to
make decisions, a person familiar with his conversations said. If
Netanyahu didn’t want to work that way, Witkoff said, everyone should
just pack their bags and go home, the person said.

Witkoff delivered the same imperative to Arab mediators. A day earlier
in Doha, Qatar, armed with a thick file containing the details of
previous rounds of talks, he told them it was time for an agreement, not
endless diplomatic back-and-forth, the mediators and the person familiar
with the conversations said.

Witkoff, a friend of Trump’s—he was playing a round of golf with him
during an assassination attempt in September—was new to diplomacy. But
his push was well-timed, with both sides more inclined to a deal, and
Trump having warned there would be “ALL HELL TO PAY” if there wasn’t one.

That warning was meant for both sides, the person said. “The president
has been a great friend of Israel,” Witkoff told the prime minister, the
person said, “and now it’s time to be a friend back.”

Immediately after the meeting, Netanyahu sent a key aide and the heads
of Israel’s spy agencies to Doha for an intense week of negotiations
that brought a deal which had been moribund just weeks earlier back into
play.

On Friday, Israel’s security cabinet approved the agreement, which would
pause the fighting for at least six weeks, swap hostages held in Gaza
for Palestinian prisoners in Israel, and open a pathway to ending a
15-month war that spilled over into a regional conflict and had
repercussions around the globe.

Intensive talks led by senior Biden administration officials had
repeatedly failed to end the violence. But even though the terms of the
agreement on the table had changed little in eight months, this time was
different, as a disparate set of events had primed the parties for the
right push.

Israel had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, battered Iran’s regional
network of militias, and took out many of Tehran’s air defenses before
the end of last year, putting it in a much stronger negotiating position.

At the same time, Netanyahu had strengthened his governing coalition,
making it less likely to be toppled by right-wing opposition to a deal.
And there was a ready framework for an agreement hammered out months
earlier by the Biden administration.

Within a few days, Israeli and Arab officials were signaling to Wall
Street Journal reporters that there was real progress. On Wednesday,
after months of false starts and foot-dragging, negotiators and Trump
himself were triumphantly announcing that a deal had been done.

“Well, obviously there is, there’s a different political situation with
the U.S. in the transition,” said Jack Lew, President Biden’s outgoing
U.S. ambassador to Israel. “There is always an element of uncertainty in
a transition, and I think that that element of uncertainty had a
positive impact.”

The new deal will be implemented in phases, beginning with the exchange
of some of the hostages for Palestinian prisoners before moving on to
talks over a broader end to the fighting.

It almost stumbled at the end. Negotiators on Tuesday conveyed a final
draft to Hamas for approval, people familiar with the talks said. They
gave the U.S.-designated terrorist group eight hours to come back with
an answer, but long after the deadline Hamas still hadn’t replied,
creating a nervous and embarrassing moment after all the positive
signaling, one of the people said.

Hamas finally returned to the table, saying it was working through the
details and wanted to change some of the agreed-upon items, according to
U.S. and Arab officials. U.S. officials said they “held firm,”
communicating to Hamas that there would be no further changes.

U.S. and Israeli officials have cautioned that the agreement is still
fragile. Almost immediately after the deal was announced, Netanyahu’s
office threw it back into uncertainty for two days by accusing Hamas of
reneging on key points and, according to Arab mediators in the talks,
saying it would keep its troops along Gaza’s border with Egypt for
longer than it had agreed.

The next stage of the talks, which will open the discussion over an end
to the war, will likely be even more contentious, as Israel and Hamas
remain at odds over whether there should be a permanent halt to the
fighting.

The president-elect has reassured Israel that if Hamas violates the
deal, the U.S. will back an Israeli return to fighting, according to a
person close to the Trump team. The U.S. will work to ensure the
militant group has no future governing role in Gaza, the person said.

“This is just the beginning,” Qatar’s prime minister, Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman Al Thani, said Wednesday while announcing the deal.


The fighting in Gaza was triggered by the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack
on southern Israel, which left around 1,200 dead and some 250 people
taken hostage. More than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza,
according to Palestinian health authorities, who don’t say how many were
combatants.

An earlier cease-fire deal in November 2023 released about 100 hostages
but quickly collapsed. Negotiators tried to resume talks but were
dealing with two sides stubbornly unwilling to re-establish a truce.

Netanyahu, vowing to topple Hamas and kill its leadership, pressed his
military campaign. Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar tried to pull Iran and
Hezbollah deeper into the fight and reveled in the growing international
pressure on Israel brought about by Palestinian civilians’ suffering.

The deaths “will infuse life into the veins of this nation,” he wrote in
one of dozens of notes exchanged with his negotiators.

This week’s agreement echoes a proposal drafted by Israel in May. It
called for a first stage with a cease-fire and release of hostages,
followed by another stage with talks about an end to the war, according
to a copy reviewed by the Journal.

But Netanyahu’s government depended on the support of right-wing allies
who threatened to bolt should he move ahead.

At a meeting in July at the Watergate Hotel in Washington, Netanyahu
spoke with hostage families pressing for a deal and told them he wasn’t
ready to stop the fight.

“If we give up on victory over Hamas, we are all in danger from every
front,” Netanyahu said, pounding the table as he spoke, according to a
recording reviewed by the Journal.

“This axis,” he said, referring to Hamas and its Iran-led allies, “is
eating us.”

On Oct. 16, after months of unavailing back and forth in the talks,
Israeli troops killed Sinwar. Leadership passed to Sinwar’s younger
brother, Mohammed, who recruited new members and scavenged unexploded
munitions to keep up the fight.

It took Trump’s re-election to get negotiations back on track. Hostage
families had been reaching out to him and his close circle since the
summer. They wrote letters and met in person and on Zoom calls with
Witkoff, key donor Miriam Adelson, Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) and Trump
himself, who frequently voiced support in their plight and grew annoyed
with the lack of progress.

“I would say that the president is exasperated,” Witkoff, referring to
Trump, told reporters last week at Mar-a-Lago before heading out for
Doha for talks.

Meanwhile, in early December, Hamas officials had traveled to Cairo and
told Egyptian mediators that some members of the group’s armed wing in
Gaza were leaning toward a deal, Arab officials said.

Gathered in a light-colored brick building in the redeveloped downtown
of the Qatari capital, the Israeli and Hamas teams were literally on top
of one another, stacked in rooms in the same part of separate floors.
The heads of the Qatari and Egyptian teams mediating the talks shuttled
messages between them.

A key issue that Witkoff helped overcome in recent days was the concerns
among Hamas officials that Israel would return to fighting after getting
its most vulnerable hostages back in the first phase, according to the
mediators. Witkoff said if everyone abides by the agreement, then Trump
would encourage meaningful negotiations in Phase 2, the person familiar
with his conversations said.

The mediators passed those assurances along to Hamas. The militant
group, which previously wanted written guarantees that Israel wouldn’t
return to fighting, moved forward with Trump’s verbal pledges, mediators
said.

After the announcements that a deal had been reached, there was still
time for one last argument.

Arab mediators said Hamas insisted on naming some of the Palestinian
prisoners who would be released in exchange for the hostages, while
Israel pushed to extend the time that its troops would remain in the
Philadelphi corridor.
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