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From: Cryptoengineer <petertrei@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: "New asteroid has a chance of impacting Earth in 2032"
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2025 15:57:00 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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On 1/30/2025 3:03 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> "New asteroid has a chance of impacting Earth in 2032"
>     https://www.chron.com/news/space/article/asteroid-hit- 
> earth-20063120.php
> 
> “The odds of a recently discovered massive asteroid hitting Earth within 
> the next seven years are shockingly not zero. Dubbed 2024 YR4, the 
> approximately 150-foot-wide asteroid was first spotted by the Asteroid 
> Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on Dec. 27, 2024. Based on 
> preliminary data, the near-Earth object (NEO) has a 1.2 percent chance 
> of crashing into our planet when it makes a very close approach on Dec. 
> 22, 2032, landing it at the top of NASA's Sentry Risk Table and the 
> European Space Agency's (ESA) NEO Impact Risk List.”
> 
> Don't look up !
> 
> Lynn
> 

Its a lot smaller the Dimorphos, the asteroid hit in the DART mission.
That was over 150 meters across.

BOTE doodling....

The DART impact changed Dimorphos' velocity by about 2.7 mm/s
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05878-z

Guess: This asteroid is 1/3 the diameter, ie 1/27
the volume, and 1/27 the mass.

A similar impact would change its velocity by 72.9 mm/s

That's 262 meters/hour, or 6.2 km/day, or 2300 km/y

Earth's radius is about 3963 km.

So, even if it were precisely centered on the Earth,
a DART sized impact could make it miss in about 16
months.

So, it probably won't be done, but doing something is
actually kind of feasible.

There's a good chance a DART style impact would entirely
disrupt this small asteroid.

pt