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From: Rolf Mantel <news@hartig-mantel.de>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Another criminal cyclist
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2025 10:54:01 +0100
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Am 12.02.2025 um 10:32 schrieb Catrike Ryder:
> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:37:17 -0500, Frank Krygowski
> <frkrygow@gXXmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On 2/11/2025 9:28 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>>> On 2/11/2025 7:58 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>>>> On 2/9/2025 11:46 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>> On 2/9/2025 9:55 AM, Shadow wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>      PS There were 40.000 homicides in Brazil in 2023 under Lula.
>>>>>> 60.000 homicides in 2017 in the Temer/Bolsonaro regime. Give people
>>>>>> employment and salaries, they'll commit less crimes.
>>>>>
>>>>>   From today's paper:
>>>>>
>>>>> https://nypost.com/2025/02/08/opinion/even-gun-shy-sweden- has-to-
>>>>> deal- with-mass-shootings/
>>>>
>>>> Hmm. Focusing on outliers yet again!
>>>>
>>>> https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/insights-blog/acting- data/gun-
>>>> violence-united-states-outlier
>>>>
>>>> I'd bet that Swedish news outlets never bother to report much about
>>>> American mass shootings. They're too common to be interesting.
>>>>
>>> The important point of the piece is the ineffectiveness of legislation
>>> across a wide range of policy and culture.
>>
>> Still! If legislation consistently causes a far lower number of bad
>> incidents, one exceptional incident doesn't prove the legislation was bad.
> 
> That there might be lower numbers of bad incidents does not prove it
> was caused by legislation.

Sure, correlation is not causation.  However, it is a storng indicator 
that the legislation was not detrimental to reducing the number of 
incidents because an "anti-causation" would break correlation.