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From: jdnicoll@panix.com (James Nicoll)
Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written
Subject: Re: "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: Public Access Networks Corp.
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In article <608sqjle4440ka7d2tnb3b8n1hjam30skt@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person  <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>Telescope to
>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>than eight
>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>asteroid will
>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>probability of a
>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>
>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying.  They are refining their data to
>improve their
>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>
>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>
>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>
>>
>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters 
>>outside new york.
>>
>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a 
>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>
>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>/Deep Impact/.
>
>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>
>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>
>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>the film exaggerated things a bit.

My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.

Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI
featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino-
saur on the Moon. 

-- 
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