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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: The Great Epizootic of 1872
Date: Sun, 30 Mar 2025 10:43:53 -0500
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On 3/30/2025 10:26 AM, RonO wrote:
> On 3/29/2025 11:41 PM, jillery wrote:
>> To provide a historical perspective on the effects of the current bird
>> flu epidemic, it's worthwhile to share what happened when undocumented
>> Canadian horse flu viruses illegally crossed the border into the
>> United States:
>>
>> <https://youtu.be/u4d_sBoCcjg>
>>
>> Not a sound was heard in the silent street,
>> as home from the concert we hurried.
>>
>> We found not a streetcar, carriage, nor bus,
>> and we felt considerably worried.
>>
>> We hailed a driver we used to know,
>> and hurriedly ask him the reason.
>>
>> He said as he sadly lowered his head,
>> "The horses were all a sneezin'."
>>
>>
>> The first cases of horse flu were reported in Toronto Canada in
>> September 1872.  By the spring of 1873, it had spread to both coasts,
>> Cuba, and Mexico.  Although it wasn't especially fatal to the horses,
>> from 1% to 5%, they were incapable of labor for at least two weeks
>> while they recovered.
>>
>> To appreciate the epidemic's impact, almost all economic activity at
>> the time was powered by horses.  Imagine what it would be like today
>> if all electric motors and internal combustion engines suddenly
>> stopped working.
>>
> 
> In those days it was literally horse power.  The initial dairy cattle 
> cases in March 2024 in Texas and Michigan only had around 2% mortality, 
> but the California herds started to have 10 to 15% mortality in September.
> 
> High density of horses and the fact that they were needed to move goods 
> between cities and states spread the disease.  The video claims that in 
> a city of 100,000 people there was one horse per 15 people.  Some 
> stables were immune, but my guess is that they were just infected first, 
> and the horses had recovered before the disease took over all the other 
> horses.  They would have just had to have been infected 3 weeks before 
> the peak of the epidemic in that city.
> 
> There is a difference between the economic loss due to the loss of horse 
> power and the current egg shortage.  Horses likely spread the disease 
> among themselves and were likely infective before showing symptoms 
> themselves.  The density and the required distance travel spread the 
> disease.  For poultry most of the commercial layer flocks lost in 2024 
> were due to dairy virus infection.  The most likely vector was dairy 
> workers that worked on both dairies and poultry farms.  This was 
> understood from the first commercial flock infections in Michigan and 
> Texas where dairy workers were found to work on infected poultry farms. 
> When Utah lost it's first commercial layer flock they immediately tested 
> the dairies in that county and found 8 of them infected.  California did 
> not learn and lived in denial of the dairy workers spreading the virus, 
> and did not restrict dairy worker movements and they lost over 40% of 
> their commercial layer flocks to the dairy virus.  They knew that dairy 
> workers were being infected and shedding virus, and they knew that dairy 
> workers were working at more than one dairy and also at poultry farms, 
> but they refused to do the right thing, and it resulted in over 70% of 
> their dairy herds being infected and the loss of over 40% of their 
> commercial layer flocks.
> 
> Ron Okimoto
> 
The latest number from California is 757 infected dairies this would be 
around 80% of the herds in California (around 950 total dairy herds)

https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/AHFSS/Animal_Health/HPAI.html#:

Ron Okimoto
>