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Path: ...!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail From: Cryptoengineer <petertrei@gmail.com> Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written Subject: Re: "Rising Odds Asteroid That Briefly Threatened Earth Will Hit Moon" Date: Fri, 4 Apr 2025 17:23:21 -0400 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 42 Message-ID: <vspik9$f0c4$1@dont-email.me> References: <vsnsa1$2no2i$1@dont-email.me> <vsorvl$3mgh0$1@dont-email.me> <g2vvujhohlnn18i2uue81fohip15kkoqr5@4ax.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Injection-Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2025 23:23:22 +0200 (CEST) Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="e6ffdc89a83baeda923ad6d6f5303a9a"; logging-data="491908"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19GLShtnhWGUELatS6FiWcpJhjqM8ZIP/E=" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird Cancel-Lock: sha1:x8VSmIdSKYfVMFDpvVt/wsBq/RI= Content-Language: en-US In-Reply-To: <g2vvujhohlnn18i2uue81fohip15kkoqr5@4ax.com> Bytes: 2736 On 4/4/2025 11:44 AM, Paul S Person wrote: > On Fri, 4 Apr 2025 07:56:54 -0700, Dimensional Traveler > <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote: > >> On 4/3/2025 10:56 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote: > > <snippo Giant Space Rock might hit Moon> > >>> "After the Webb telescope turned its powerful gaze towards the asteroid >>> last month, the chance of a Moon shot is now at 3.8 percent, NASA said." >>> >>> We are all going to die. >>> >> Eventually, yes, but not because of the creation of a new crater on the >> moon. > > This article > <https://www.sciencenews.org/article/moon-grand-canyons-lunar-rocks> > might be relevant, if the impact of the asteroid in question would > produce enegergies less than or greater than "130 times that of the > global inventory of nuclear weapons". Just as providing a sense of > scale to the possible results. > > But it still only a 4% chance of a hit. That's a 96% chance of a miss, > after all. > > Note: I signed out while finding this, but it should be generally > available. If not, the point of the article is that it took only 10 > minutes to create two canyons deeper than the Grand Canyon by tossing > rocks around. Just to clarify. The Schrodinger Impact Basin, which the article refers to, is 312 km across. This is 50% larger than the Cicxulub Crater the ended the dinosaurs, which was crated by an impactor 10 km across. The current asteroid, 2024 YR4, is about 60m across, and about one five millionth the mass of the Chicxulub impactor. Its a city killer, not something that would cause a mass extinction. pt