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From: AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org>
Newsgroups: rec.bicycles.tech
Subject: Re: Helmet efficacy test
Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2025 08:13:34 -0500
Organization: Yellow Jersey, Ltd.
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On 4/17/2025 9:12 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> On 4/17/2025 8:21 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 4/17/2025 7:09 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>> Roger Merriman <roger@sarlet.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>> On 4/15/2025 4:04 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>>>>>> AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 4/15/2025 3:27 AM, Rolf Mantel wrote:
>>>>>>>> Am 15.04.2025 um 02:40 schrieb Radey Shouman:
>>>>>>>>> zen cycle <funkmasterxx@hotmail.com> writes:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> A direct effect of the anti-vax movement.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I'm in favor of measles vaccination, and never said 
>>>>>>>>> otherwise.  I
>>>>>>>>> took
>>>>>>>>> the vaccine back when it was quite new, and never 
>>>>>>>>> regretted it.  I
>>>>>>>>> believe most of the Texas and New Mexico measles 
>>>>>>>>> cases are among
>>>>>>>>> Mennonites, who may have a different opinion.  I am 
>>>>>>>>> not in favor of
>>>>>>>>> trying to force them to vaccinate.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The anti-vax movement used to be the province of 
>>>>>>>>> wealthy,
>>>>>>>>> overprivileged, nutty granola types.  Why do you 
>>>>>>>>> suppose it has
>>>>>>>>> spread
>>>>>>>>> more widely?
>>>>>>>> The Anti-vax movement has been strongly linked to 
>>>>>>>> the Nazis since
>>>>>>>> the early 1930's "we cannot have Jewish doctors 
>>>>>>>> poison our pure
>>>>>>>> aryan blood lines".
>>>>>>>> The "Jewish Domination" Consipracy claims of those 
>>>>>>>> times have lived
>>>>>>>> on in the alt-right movement, just replacing the 
>>>>>>>> word "Jewish" by
>>>>>>>> the word "globalist".  I am absolutely not surprised 
>>>>>>>> that the rise
>>>>>>>> to power of the Alt-Right has given popularity to 
>>>>>>>> the Anti-Vaxxers
>>>>>>>> as well.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Maybe in Germany, I truly don't know.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> But here, the rise in anti-vax was driven by upper 
>>>>>>> class suburban
>>>>>>> mothers and Hollywood celebrities who skew soft 
>>>>>>> left.  (as with any
>>>>>>> social phenomenon there are of course many flavors of 
>>>>>>> opinion and
>>>>>>> politics)  It was unusual before that quack Wakefield 
>>>>>>> (1998?) but
>>>>>>> snowballed after that.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Regarding anti-Semitism, one of the notable groups 
>>>>>>> here resistant to
>>>>>>> vaccination generally are Hasidim.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://forward.com/news/417390/measles-is-hitting- 
>>>>>>> ultra-orthodox- communities-why-arent-they-vaccinating/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This agrees with my US-centric impressions.  Regarding 
>>>>>> Nazi anti-vax
>>>>>> feelings, I understand Hitler was a vegetarian.  Maybe 
>>>>>> all vegetarians
>>>>>> are secretly Nazis.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> A vegetarian nonsmoking teetotaler I might well add.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The brain injury from the 1st world war, is probably 
>>>> more likely if one was
>>>> going for external influences, that and that Eugenics 
>>>> was popular.
>>>
>>> My point was that I would be amazed to find a person with 
>>> whom I either
>>> agreed or disagreed on every particular.  "Nazis liked 
>>> it, therefore it
>>> must be bad" is an ad hominem argument.
>>>
>>
>> Or  'Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc'
>>
>> https://helpfulprofessor.com/post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc- 
>> examples/
> 
> One should be careful when claiming something a "post hoc" 
> fallacy. Because, as should be obvious, many times "propter 
> hoc" actually is true. From your cited web page, "Such 
> inferences may sometimes be reasonable to make and sometimes 
> not."
> 
> One of the jobs of science is to tell when the inferences 
> are true. In fact, I'd say the great bulk of science 
> knowledge consists of true instances of "post hoc ergo 
> propter hoc."
> 
> We have one poster here who seems dedicated to claiming that 
> correlation _never_ indicated causation - or at least, 
> raising an argument like that for any correlation he 
> dislikes. That's throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
> 

Yes I agree.

Without the inference of causation we would not form 
hypotheses.  Whether that inference is actually true or not 
is the basic question of science (or regarding larger 
issues, Stoicism).

In order to find and know what is, inference leads us to 
test hypotheses. The test part gets dropped sometimes which 
is where logic goes astray.

-- 
Andrew Muzi
am@yellowjersey.org
Open every day since 1 April, 1971