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Subject: Du danger de la politique du rouble fort
Date: Mon, 23 May 2022 21:00:12 +0200
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Selon l'économiste russe Denis Domashchenko un rouble trop fort risque 
d'entraver le développement de l'industrie de haute technologie en 
Russie. J'ai oublié le nom que l'on donne à cette maladie économique qui 
a affecté la Hollande après la découverte d'un gros gisement de gaz dans 
ce pays. C'est la même maladie économique qui a frappé l'Espagne, causée 
non pas par l'énergie mais par l'or de l'empire. Et c'est le même risque 
qui frappe la Russie aujourd'hui. Domashchenko propose de ne plus 
laisser flotter le cours du rouble mais de l'administrer, comme le font 
les Chinois. Je ne suis pas économiste mais je recommanderai plutôt à la 
Russie d'arrêter d'exporter de précieuses ressources non renouvelables 
qu'elle vend contre de l'argent dont elle n'a pas l'usage. Qu'elle ne le 
fasse que pour acquérir du savoir, des savoir-faire, des technologies et 
des machines qu'elle ne sait pas fabriquer. Ainsi elle parviendra à 
construire une industrie de très haute technologie sur son sol.

https://www.rt.com/business/555973-strong-ruble-downside-russia/

Economist points to downside of strong ruble

The Russian currency’s strength may negatively affect other sectors of 
the economy

The combination of a strong ruble and high oil prices will temporarily 
tame inflation, however, it also could accelerate consumer prices in the 
future, according to Doctor of Economics Denis Domashchenko, as quoted 
by the Russian business daily RBC.

The analyst warns that the dominance of energy sector revenues along 
with a firm national currency may evoke the so-called ‘Dutch disease’.

In economics, the ‘Dutch disease’ is the seemingly causal relationship 
between the increase in economic development of a specific sector and a 
decline in other sectors. It could emerge as the negative consequences 
that can arise from a spike in the value of a nation’s currency due to 
the rapid growth of the export of goods of one dominant industry, most 
commonly fossil fuels. At first, the influx of foreign currency reduces 
inflation in the country, but at the same time, it slows down the 
development of other industries and hinders economic growth, leading to 
price acceleration.

The term was first used in 1977 by The Economist to describe the decline 
of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands after the discovery of 
the large Groningen natural gas field in 1959.

The recent strengthening of the Russian currency and increased revenues 
from the sale of energy products at high prices are risky for the 
development of the country’s economy in the long term, according to 
Domashchenko.

The economist warned that the ‘Dutch disease’ or the Groningen effect 
may manifest itself in the Russian economy, as a high exchange rate can 
provoke a backlog of high-tech sectors of the economy and lead to a 
delayed price increase.

According to Domaschenko, the establishment of a fixed ruble exchange 
rate instead of a floating bar that has been operating in Russia since 
2014 would make it possible to strike a balance between inflation 
regulation and economic growth. The economist said that a similar 
mechanism previously helped to stabilize the economic situation in China.

On Monday, the ruble gained more than 6% against the euro to 58.75, 
reaching its strongest level since June 2015. Against the dollar, the 
Russian currency surged 4.6% to trade at 57.47, not far from the 
four-year high reached on Friday.