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From: RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: California Dairy herds positive for the dairy virus
Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2024 13:57:05 -0500
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On 9/17/2024 1:18 PM, x wrote:
> On 9/16/24 18:30, RonO wrote:
>> On 9/16/2024 8:18 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 9/14/2024 8:27 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 9/14/2024 6:12 PM, x wrote:
>>>>> On 9/14/24 15:23, RonO wrote:
>>>>>> On 9/12/2024 11:59 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>> On 9/11/2024 12:05 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 9/8/2024 6:55 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 9/7/2024 2:17 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On 9/6/2024 5:34 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>> On 9/4/2024 8:23 PM, RonO wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>> 3 herds in California central valley have been found to be 
>>>>>>>>>>>> positive for the dairy virus.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/29/california-nations- 
>>>>>>>>>>>> largest- milk- producer-discloses-possible-bird-flu- 
>>>>>>>>>>>> outbreaks- in-three- dairy-cow- herds/
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> They claim that California workers are "usually" dedicated 
>>>>>>>>>>>> to just one herd so do not pick up shifts at nearby poultry 
>>>>>>>>>>>> farms, but months ago (before I retired in May) I noted that 
>>>>>>>>>>>> California had high levels of influenza virus in the waste 
>>>>>>>>>>>> water around the bay area.  At that time they had estimated 
>>>>>>>>>>>> that the virus first infected cattle Sept or Oct 2023, and 
>>>>>>>>>>>> they hadn't yet found viral sequence from herds infected 
>>>>>>>>>>>> that early in Texas.  When I looked into the avian influenza 
>>>>>>>>>>>> cases the Dairy virus was most similar to one isolated from 
>>>>>>>>>>>> a Peregrine falcon in California. California had high levels 
>>>>>>>>>>>> of influenza virus in their waste water (associated with 
>>>>>>>>>>>> infected herds in Texas and Michigan) and Commercial poultry 
>>>>>>>>>>>> farms started to go down in the central valley in Oct 2023 
>>>>>>>>>>>> (the flocks get infected by the dairy workers).  A number of 
>>>>>>>>>>>> flocks went down within a few months working their way up 
>>>>>>>>>>>> North and around the bay area.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I contacted a person at the Avian disease ARS station in 
>>>>>>>>>>>> Georgia, and tried to get the name of the person that would 
>>>>>>>>>>>> have the sequence data of the California samples (they had 
>>>>>>>>>>>> not been included in any of the dairy virus studies) but I 
>>>>>>>>>>>> was told that the USDA did not give out that information.  I 
>>>>>>>>>>>> told the guy that they needed to check out those samples, 
>>>>>>>>>>>> but his comment was that they were busy.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> My prediction is that when they sequence the central valley 
>>>>>>>>>>>> virus they could identify the region where the initial dairy 
>>>>>>>>>>>> infection occurred and it spread from California to Texas. 
>>>>>>>>>>>> The virus spread rapidly out of Texas, but it probably came 
>>>>>>>>>>>> from somewhere else.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> The CDC and USDA would have identified many more states with 
>>>>>>>>>>>> infected herds by now if they had acted on the waste water 
>>>>>>>>>>>> data and the FDA identification of states with virus 
>>>>>>>>>>>> positive dairy products.  The Dairy workers are not being 
>>>>>>>>>>>> protected from being infected in states that refuse to 
>>>>>>>>>>>> identify their infected herds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/person-infected- 
>>>>>>>>>>> bird- flu- missouri-no-contact-animals-know-rcna170010
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> There has been a case of H5N1 in a human in Missouri, but 
>>>>>>>>>>> this person did not have contact with poultry or dairy 
>>>>>>>>>>> cattle.  My guess is that it is person to person 
>>>>>>>>>>> transmission.  Missouri is one of the states that has not 
>>>>>>>>>>> verified any positive dairy herds (no one has been looking), 
>>>>>>>>>>> but Kansas and Oklahoma have positive dairy herds. They have 
>>>>>>>>>>> known that it was likely human transmission into Kansas and 
>>>>>>>>>>> North Dakota from Texas because neither states got cattle 
>>>>>>>>>>> from Texas, but both states got the virus from Texas. Human 
>>>>>>>>>>> to human transmission has probably been going on for some 
>>>>>>>>>>> time, but they never started contact tracing to identify 
>>>>>>>>>>> possibly infected herds nor to determine how the virus was 
>>>>>>>>>>> transmitted to the herds and poultry flocks that have been 
>>>>>>>>>>> infected.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The virus is H5, but hasn't been confirmed to be the dairy 
>>>>>>>>>> virus. The article notes that Missouri hasn't claimed to have 
>>>>>>>>>> positive herds at this time, but commercial poultry flocks 
>>>>>>>>>> have gone down and that usually happens when the dairies are 
>>>>>>>>>> infected and dairy workers take it to the poultry farms. 
>>>>>>>>>> Previous human cases had mild symptoms, but this person was 
>>>>>>>>>> hospitalized.  The USDA and CDC are still not doing anything 
>>>>>>>>>> to identify all the infected herds in states like Missouri, so 
>>>>>>>>>> nothing much has been done to minimize the exposure of dairy 
>>>>>>>>>> workers.  My guess is that an infected dairy worker infected 
>>>>>>>>>> this patient, and it is a case of human to human transmission.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> As stupid as it may be the CDC response to the latest human 
>>>>>>>>> infection without contact with animals is worse than can be 
>>>>>>>>> imagined.  They did not send a team to investigate, and have 
>>>>>>>>> not started contact tracing and testing of close contacts.  It 
>>>>>>>>> seems crazy when you think that the person was hospitalized, 
>>>>>>>>> and this is obviously a serious case of infection.  What they 
>>>>>>>>> do not want is the 50% human mortality associated with the H5N1 
>>>>>>>>> virus to become a reality for the dairy virus.  The CDC 
>>>>>>>>> continues to do nothing but monitor the disease in two states, 
>>>>>>>>> which is just nuts.  They are actually waiting for it to become 
>>>>>>>>> a noticeable problem somewhere else before starting to do 
>>>>>>>>> anything in other states.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/08/missouri-h5-bird-flu-case- 
>>>>>>>>> questions- cat-raw-milk/
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Ron Okimoto
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> R
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-missouri-resident-bird- 
>>>>>>>> flu- livestock.html
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This ariticle seems to be trying to downplay the possibility of 
>>>>>>>> human to human transmission.  The Texas antibody testing of 
>>>>>>>> dairy workers have already come out with evidence for human to 
>>>>>>>> human transmission because one of the workers positive for H5 
>>>>>>>> antibodies did not have contact with cattle, and only had 
>>>>>>>> contact with other dairy workers. There was also the case of the 
>>>>>>>> indoor cat in Colorado that was probably infected by humans.  
>>>>>>>> The states that did not get cattle from affected states, but 
>>>>>>>> still got the dairy virus were likely infected by human dairy 
>>>>>>>> workers migrating to those states. Kansas got infected from 
>>>>>>>> Texas, and then Dakota got infected with the strain in Kansas, 
>>>>>>>> and Kansas did not get cattle from Texas, and South Dakota did 
>>>>>>>> not get cattle from Kansas.  The CDC has known this since about 
>>>>>>>> the beginning of detecting the infections in April, but they 
>>>>>>>> never started human contact tracing to determine how all the 
>>>>>>>> dairy herds and poultry flocks were being infected.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Humans have been transmitting the virus since the start of this 
>>>>>>>> fiasco. Humans could have brought the virus into Texas.  The 
>>>>>>>> Texas Dairy worker that was the first infection had a virus that 
>>>>>>>> had branched off earlier than the strain that infected Texas. 
>>>>>>>> They never got the name of that dairy worker, so they couldn't 
>>>>>>>> ask him where he could have been infected.  He could have been 
>>>>>>>> infected in the state that was the origin of the dairy 
>>>>>>>> infection.  One of his fellow dairy workers could have been 
>>>>>>>> infected in that same state, but brought in the Texas strain 
>>>>>>>> (one with more substitutions than the strain that infected the 
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