Path: ...!2.eu.feeder.erje.net!feeder.erje.net!feeds.news.ox.ac.uk!news.ox.ac.uk!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail From: Mark Isaak Newsgroups: talk.origins Subject: Re: Ool - out at first base? Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 11:47:47 -0800 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 35 Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org Message-ID: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89"; logging-data="45738"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org Cancel-Lock: sha1:2OfSDObWwSbRod48sFRdeJh3hy8= Return-Path: X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org id 70881229782; Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:47:56 -0500 (EST) by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 3A262229765 for ; Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:47:54 -0500 (EST) by moderators.individual.net (Exim 4.98) for talk-origins@moderators.isc.org with esmtps (TLS1.3) tls TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (envelope-from ) id 1tNH4I-000000016pw-1Kzf; Mon, 16 Dec 2024 20:47:50 +0100 (using TLSv1.3 with cipher TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (256/256 bits) key-exchange X25519 server-signature ECDSA (P-256) server-digest SHA256) (No client certificate requested) by smtp.eternal-september.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 180C35FD3B for ; Mon, 16 Dec 2024 19:47:49 +0000 (UTC) Authentication-Results: name/180C35FD3B; dmarc=none (p=none dis=none) header.from=curioustaxon.omy.net id 9CECADC01A9; Mon, 16 Dec 2024 20:47:48 +0100 (CET) X-Injection-Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2024 20:47:48 +0100 (CET) In-Reply-To: Content-Language: en-US X-Auth-Sender: U2FsdGVkX1+N83eiD14f1e5uSrvD4l6IjJoFtCxyhpA= tests=HEADER_FROM_DIFFERENT_DOMAINS,RCVD_IN_DNSWL_BLOCKED, SPF_HELO_NONE,SPF_PASS,USER_IN_WELCOMELIST,USER_IN_WHITELIST autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no version=3.4.6 smtp.eternal-september.org Bytes: 4153 On 12/13/24 5:37 PM, MarkE wrote: > On 14/12/2024 4:19 am, Bob Casanova wrote: >> On Wed, 11 Dec 2024 10:51:36 +1100, the following appeared >> in talk.origins, posted by MarkE : >>> [...] >>> In summary the argument is: if a hypothesised little warm pond (or >>> thermal vent, etc) has virtually zero chance of producing this >>> protocell, then no amount of ponds and planets will help: >>> >>> P(OoL) = N_ponds x N_planets x P(protocell) x P(post-protocell) >>> >>> If P(protocell) -> 0, then P(OoL) -> 0 >>> >>> Of course, it remains to be demonstrated that P(protocell) -> 0, but >>> would you agree with the logic of the argument? >>> >> Logic is worthless absent data, and can prove (or disprove) >> nothing. Your argument is as valid as that of the Fermi >> "Paradox" or arguments regarding the number of angels that >> can dance on a pinpoint; i.e., of zero value without data. >> So again, please provide the mathematical calculations which >> support your assertions. In detail, please, with error bars. >>> > > You're avoiding the question. Establishing the overall logic and > assumptions of a hypothesis is sensible before investing in the heavy > lifting of numerically testing it. What you call logic is, in fact, error. You are relying on the false assumption that "unknown" = "impossible". -- Mark Isaak "Wisdom begins when you discover the difference between 'That doesn't make sense' and 'I don't understand.'" - Mary Doria Russell