Path: news.eternal-september.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!panix!.POSTED.panix2.panix.com!not-for-mail From: jdnicoll@panix.com (James Nicoll) Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written Subject: Re: "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up" Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC) Organization: Public Access Networks Corp. Message-ID: References: <7tkpqj96to3o6e4u9pvl2qdff07s5uoqqk@4ax.com> <608sqjle4440ka7d2tnb3b8n1hjam30skt@4ax.com> Injection-Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC) Injection-Info: reader2.panix.com; posting-host="panix2.panix.com:166.84.1.2"; logging-data="10726"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@panix.com" X-Newsreader: trn 4.0-test77 (Sep 1, 2010) In article <608sqjle4440ka7d2tnb3b8n1hjam30skt@4ax.com>, Paul S Person wrote: >On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D wrote: > >> >> >>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote: >> >>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote: >>>> >>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote: >>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up" >>>>>> >>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer- >>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde >>>>>> >>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space >Telescope to >>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less >than eight >>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid >>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have >>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency." >>>>>> >>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently >>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches >>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the >asteroid will >>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its >>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the >probability of a >>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.” >>>>>> >>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ? >>>>>> >>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to >improve their >>>>> accuracy. >>>> >>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an >>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If >>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem. >>> >>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of >>> space rock hitting an ocean can do. >>> >> >>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters >>outside new york. >> >>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a >>couple of years advance warning we're good to go. > >First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was >/Deep Impact/. > >Second, it is not "10 meters off New York". > >Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go. > >But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently >the film exaggerated things a bit. My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game. Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino- saur on the Moon. -- My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/ My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/ My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/ My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll