Path: ...!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!newsfeed.xs3.de!nntp-feed.chiark.greenend.org.uk!ewrotcd!news.eyrie.org!beagle.ediacara.org!.POSTED.beagle.ediacara.org!not-for-mail
From: jillery <69jpil69@gmail.com>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: =?utf-8?Q?OoL_=E2=80=93_out_at_first_?=
 =?utf-8?Q?base=3F?=
Date: Mon, 09 Dec 2024 04:11:47 -0500
Organization: What are you looking for?
Lines: 41
Sender: to%beagle.ediacara.org
Approved: moderator@beagle.ediacara.org
Message-ID: <nncdlj5tvdt2jkb7i33edajva72rtmrfg4@4ax.com>
References: <vj60ng$9f3v$1@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Injection-Info: beagle.ediacara.org; posting-host="beagle.ediacara.org:3.132.105.89";
	logging-data="72923"; mail-complaints-to="usenet@beagle.ediacara.org"
User-Agent: ForteAgent/8.00.32.1272
To: talk-origins@moderators.isc.org
Cancel-Lock: sha1:6bOD07kCrW547oKuHeO6MD326gI=
Return-Path: <news@eternal-september.org>
X-Original-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org
Delivered-To: talk-origins@ediacara.org
	id 6962B229782; Mon, 09 Dec 2024 04:12:01 -0500 (EST)
	by beagle.ediacara.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 322DE229765
	for <talk-origins@ediacara.org>; Mon, 09 Dec 2024 04:11:59 -0500 (EST)
          by moderators.individual.net (Exim 4.98)
          for talk-origins@moderators.isc.org with esmtps (TLS1.3)
          tls TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384
          (envelope-from <news@eternal-september.org>)
          id 1tKZo4-000000010AO-0S4h; Mon, 09 Dec 2024 10:11:56 +0100
	(using TLSv1.3 with cipher TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (256/256 bits)
	 key-exchange X25519 server-signature ECDSA (P-256) server-digest SHA256)
	(No client certificate requested)
	by smtp.eternal-september.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 2E8965FD26
	for <talk-origins@moderators.isc.org>; Mon,  9 Dec 2024 09:11:54 +0000 (UTC)
Authentication-Results: name/2E8965FD26; dmarc=fail (p=none dis=none) header.from=gmail.com
	id B7876DC01A9; Mon,  9 Dec 2024 10:11:53 +0100 (CET)
X-Injection-Date: Mon, 09 Dec 2024 10:11:53 +0100 (CET)
X-Auth-Sender: U2FsdGVkX18llC0L6VmKhNHRa9IHz/ruvgGe5ql304E=
	HEADER_FROM_DIFFERENT_DOMAINS,NML_ADSP_CUSTOM_MED,
	RCVD_IN_DNSWL_BLOCKED,RCVD_IN_VALIDITY_CERTIFIED_BLOCKED,
	RCVD_IN_VALIDITY_RPBL_BLOCKED,SPF_HELO_NONE,SPF_PASS,
	USER_IN_WELCOMELIST,USER_IN_WHITELIST autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no
	version=3.4.6
	smtp.eternal-september.org
Bytes: 4252

On Mon, 9 Dec 2024 16:54:56 +1100, MarkE <me22over7@gmail.com> wrote:

>We need prebiotic formation and supply of nucleotides for RNA world, and=
=20
>other models at some stage. The scope of the problem of the supply of=20
>these precursors is prone to underestimation.
>
>Nucleotides are chemically challenging in terms of the prebiotic=20
>synthesis and assembly of their three constituents of nitrogenous base,=20
>sugar and phosphate group.
>
>Harder again are the requirements for supply of these building blocks.=20
>You need (eventually) all canonical bases in sufficient concentration,=20
>purity, chirality, activation, distribution, location, etc.
>
>But the greatest problem I think is this: time. How long must you=20
>maintain the supply described above in order to assemble a=20
>self-replicating RNA strand? And even if you managed that, how much more=
=20
>time is needed before reaching a protocell capable of self-synthesising=20
>nucleotides? One million years? One hundred million years?
>
>A hypothised little warm pond with wetting/drying cycles (say) must=20
>provide a far-from-equilibrium system...for a million years...or=20
>hundreds of millions of years. You can=E2=80=99t pause the process, =
because any=20
>developing polymers will fall apart and reset the clock.
>
>What are the chances of that kind of geological and environmental=20
>stability and continuity?
>
>Therefore, the formation of an autonomous protocell naturalistically has=
=20
>vanishingly small probability.


There were many warm little ponds, spread throughout the young Earth,
all multiplying that probability.  Try to keep that in mind.

--=20
To know less than we don't know is the nature of most knowledge