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From: RonO <rokimoto@cox.net>
Newsgroups: talk.origins
Subject: Re: OT? Dairy flu
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2024 08:51:45 -0500
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On 6/4/2024 3:17 PM, RonO wrote:
> On 6/4/2024 8:57 AM, RonO wrote:
>> On 6/3/2024 3:49 PM, RonO wrote:
>>> On 6/2/2024 9:26 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>> On 5/27/2024 9:03 AM, RonO wrote:
>>>>> On 5/27/2024 1:45 AM, vallor wrote:
>>>>>> On Sat, 25 May 2024 12:49:10 -0500, RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote in
>>>>>> <v2t8an$2vo1m$1@dont-email.me>:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/25/2024 9:49 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote:
>>>>>>>> RonO <rokimoto@cox.net> wrote:
>>>>>>>>> The CDC issued an alert yesterday that they were initiating 
>>>>>>>>> planning
>>>>>>>>> for "possiblity of increased risk to human health" from the 
>>>>>>>>> dairy flu.
>>>>>>>>>   The CDC has screwed up by the numbers in terms of evolution 
>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>> virus and the threat to humans.  They knew from the first 
>>>>>>>>> detections
>>>>>>>>> that humans were being infected, but they didn't initiate 
>>>>>>>>> testing and
>>>>>>>>> contact tracing.  Humans had already likely spread the virus to 
>>>>>>>>> other
>>>>>>>>> dairy herds for some time.  They knew from the first sequencing
>>>>>>>>> results that many states did not get cattle but ended up with the
>>>>>>>>> virus.  People were the obvious vector for spread of the virus 
>>>>>>>>> between
>>>>>>>>> herds.  We have known for years that the flu virus only 
>>>>>>>>> survives for
>>>>>>>>> around 5 hours on the skin and maybe up to 12 hours on 
>>>>>>>>> clothing, but
>>>>>>>>> we also know that you have to be infected within a few minutes of
>>>>>>>>> getting it on your skin or clothing because the virus doesn't 
>>>>>>>>> seem to
>>>>>>>>> be infective after a few minutes on those surfaces.  The virus
>>>>>>>>> survives the longest on hard surfaces and is infective off those
>>>>>>>>> surfaces for up to 24 hours, but the poultry farms that were 
>>>>>>>>> infected
>>>>>>>>> by the dairy virus in the same counties as the infected herds 
>>>>>>>>> would
>>>>>>>>> have had little reason to exchange equipment.  Infected humans 
>>>>>>>>> likely
>>>>>>>>> took the virus to those poultry farms.  The two known human 
>>>>>>>>> cases were
>>>>>>>>> shedding infective virus.  The CDC has understood this from the 
>>>>>>>>> very
>>>>>>>>> beginning of their involvement, but they failed to act on it.  
>>>>>>>>> They
>>>>>>>>> claim that it isn't their policy to force testing onto farm 
>>>>>>>>> workers,
>>>>>>>>> so they never checked to determine the rate that humans were being
>>>>>>>>> infected even though there was ancedotal evidence of other dairy
>>>>>>>>> workers with red eye (eye infection).  The crazy thing is these 
>>>>>>>>> red
>>>>>>>>> eye individuals can infect other humans.  They got infected, 
>>>>>>>>> and they
>>>>>>>>> are shedding virus.  If the CDC had started testing and contact
>>>>>>>>> tracing they would already know how the other herds and poultry 
>>>>>>>>> flocks
>>>>>>>>> got infected.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> What they needed to do was identify all the infected herds and
>>>>>>>>> quarantine the herds and farm workers, but the USDA and CDC 
>>>>>>>>> were not
>>>>>>>>> interested in contact tracing and tracking down additional cases.
>>>>>>>>> They both claimed to rely on farm reporting.  This is stupid. 
>>>>>>>>> The FDA
>>>>>>>>> tested milk products from 38 states.  They tested products that 
>>>>>>>>> came
>>>>>>>>> from milk processing plants in those states and found 17 states 
>>>>>>>>> with
>>>>>>>>> H5N1 positive milk samples, but would not release the names of the
>>>>>>>>> states because they claimed to only be worried about the safety 
>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>> food chain. Pasteurization was found to kill the virus.  When 
>>>>>>>>> the FDA
>>>>>>>>> finally did release the names of the states a couple weeks 
>>>>>>>>> later it
>>>>>>>>> was found that 9 new states not yet identified as having positive
>>>>>>>>> dairy herds had produced milk products that were positive for the
>>>>>>>>> dairy virus.  3 of the states already known to have infected herds
>>>>>>>>> were not found to have positive dairy products, so they likely 
>>>>>>>>> missed
>>>>>>>>> some positive states of the 38 tested.  The CDC could have 
>>>>>>>>> predicted
>>>>>>>>> the results because they started to monitor waste water and 
>>>>>>>>> most of
>>>>>>>>> the new states that were found to have positive dairy products had
>>>>>>>>> also shown flu virus in the waste water.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The CDC knows that the longer that they allow humans to be 
>>>>>>>>> infected by
>>>>>>>>> the dairy virus the more likely that it will evolve into a 
>>>>>>>>> strain that
>>>>>>>>> will start killing people.  Currently the infected humans only 
>>>>>>>>> have
>>>>>>>>> mild eye irritation (the virus infects mammary glands and 
>>>>>>>>> apparently
>>>>>>>>> tear ducts).  The initial sequencing results indicated that 
>>>>>>>>> there were
>>>>>>>>> already variants of the virus with mutations that would make 
>>>>>>>>> them more
>>>>>>>>> infective in mammals, but they were minor variants at the time 
>>>>>>>>> of the
>>>>>>>>> sample collections.  As the virus adapts to cattle these 
>>>>>>>>> variants are
>>>>>>>>> probably the most likely to be selected for.  The virus is 
>>>>>>>>> infecting a
>>>>>>>>> lot more herds than they are tracking, and it is evolving in 
>>>>>>>>> all those
>>>>>>>>> herds and the dairy workers are exposed to that evolving virus.  I
>>>>>>>>> should note that the cats that got infected by the dairy virus had
>>>>>>>>> high mortality because the virus infected their brains.  Influenza
>>>>>>>>> virus is normally a respiratory virus, but if this virus 
>>>>>>>>> adapted to
>>>>>>>>> infecting human brains that would be a real tragedy.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> So instead of trying to limit the current spread, the CDC has 
>>>>>>>>> decided
>>>>>>>>> to prepare for human transmission of the next pandemic virus.  It
>>>>>>>>> doesn't sound like they are preparing correctly because you 
>>>>>>>>> want to
>>>>>>>>> limit the first human cases with severe symptoms.  In order to 
>>>>>>>>> do that
>>>>>>>>> you have to identify them as soon as you can.  The humans 
>>>>>>>>> currently
>>>>>>>>> being infected are dairy workers, so you need to identify all the
>>>>>>>>> infected herds and monitor the dairy workers and their human 
>>>>>>>>> contacts.
>>>>>>>>>   The next pandemic could have already started in one of the 
>>>>>>>>> states
>>>>>>>>> with unidentified infected dairy herds.  They need to track 
>>>>>>>>> down the
>>>>>>>>> dairies that contributed to the milk of the processing plants that
>>>>>>>>> produced positive milk samples.  They need to go to the 
>>>>>>>>> counties with
>>>>>>>>> positive waste water (these include multiple sites in 
>>>>>>>>> California that
>>>>>>>>> has not yet claimed to have positive herds and several of these 
>>>>>>>>> sites
>>>>>>>>> are in rural areas surrounding the bay area, the CDC nightmare
>>>>>>>>> scenario) and identify infected herds.  They need to track the
>>>>>>>>> contacts of the dairy workers so that they can identify more 
>>>>>>>>> infected
>>>>>>>>> herds in states that are already known to have infected herds. 
>>>>>>>>> Once
>>>>>>>>> they identify all the possible sources of infection they can 
>>>>>>>>> monitor
>>>>>>>>> those herds and people and then try to keep any virus from 
>>>>>>>>> spreading
>>>>>>>>> and becoming a pandemic.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> My hot and possibly wrong takes are that they are dealing with a 
>>>>>>>> very
>>>>>>>> influential and somewhat litigious industry. Ask Oprah. They are 
>>>>>>>> also
>>>>>>>> dealing with a subset of the population induced with reactance. 
>>>>>>>> Tell
>>>>>>>> them not to drink raw milk and its popularity will rise. They 
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